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    Anticipating the Day When the Oil Crisis Reaches its Climax E. Bruce Harrison
    June 14, 2010

    In novels and the theater, the climax is the point at which escalating tension is relieved. Hamlet dies (apologizing). Burt Lancaster survives the gunfight at the O.K. Corral. Boy finds girl at the top of the Empire State building.

    So, when will the gushing oil crisis reach climax? Don't look for it this week.

    Capitol Hill grilling of the hapless Mr. Hayward will make for good theater but it won't get us off the ladder that the Greeks used as the word for reaching climax.

    Meetings and Oval Office speeches will keep us climbing the ladder, feeling more tension.

    In fact, you can forget about a shoot-out between the President and BP. Each has too much at stake. Both need to walk away from the O.K. Corral and get back to work.

    The tension will peak and then fall off when the gushing stops.

    More specifically, the climax or turning point of this great drama will come the day the 24/7 public video shows nothing but clear ocean surrounding the deep-sea pipe.

    Here's why: everybody wants a new normal.

    A crisis is a condition that overwhelms the normal. It interrupts and interferes with the day-to-day focus on achieving set objectives.

    For a corporation, it's when an incident or sudden revelation of negative information chokes the company's engagement with its stakeholders.

    You know you're in a crisis when the attention of stakeholders and the public is so intense that everything else the company is doing is cast into doubt.

    In our class at Georgetown University, students have helped us define crisis as a situation that threatens the entire organization's operations, sustainability and abiding reputation.

    Analysts and investors rethink their evaluation of — or dependence on — the company.

    Employees, business partners, customers — every place along the whole chain of reliance on the company based on experience and trust — the question is suddenly "what does this mean to me?"

    They look for reassurance that this won't hurt their stake in the company's success.

    There is also the eerily bright view of corporate dysfunction.

    Environmentalists and alternative energy advocates see the opportunity of BP's example of what they contend is wrong with oil dependence.

    And of course, returning to the host theater of this particular drama, political opportunity is enlivened. Senator John Kerry gets an unexpected lift for the energy (formerly climate) bill which emphasizes non-carbon sources. Governors and local officials are thrust into opportune roles to defend and save victimized voters and causes.

    All of this will change when the undersea camera is a boring show of bubbling water.

    On that day, both BP and the White House can both address the resolution of this crisis, and turn to other matters.

    Stakeholders at all levels will at least be able to deal with fewer unknown knowns.

    Political sails will lose or gain wind.

    Financial matters can be reassessed rationally — if under extremely difficult conditions.

    Dilbert and Doonesbury, Leno and Stewart will move on.

    And BP will get to work not only on restitution but on what it can recover of its tattered reputation.

    On the threshold of new normalcy, as Churchill said in another more serious crisis situation, the end of the beginning will have occurred.


    — E. Bruce Harrison
        Washington, DC
        June 14, 2010

        Bruce Harrison is an adjunct professor in the master's program at
        Georgetown University, Washington, DC. He and Judith Muhlberger teach
        courses in leadership communications and corporate crisis communications.

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